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Maggie Jackson: When people begin to understand the difference, the distinction between fear and uncertainty, they tell me it’s liberating. Suddenly the world opens up and you can begin to see that curiosity.
Tami Simon: In this episode of Insights at the Edge, my guest is Maggie Jackson. Maggie is an award-winning author, journalist, and a sought after speaker known for her prescient writings on social trends, particularly technologies impact on humanity. Her most recent book is called Uncertain the Wisdom and Wonder of Being Unsure, and that’s what we’re gonna talk about.
Maggie, welcome.
Maggie Jackson: Thank you so much. It’s great to be with you.
Tami Simon: I learned from uncertain that there is now a new science related to being uncertain and uncertainty. And I thought this would be a good place for us to start for people who are like, what? There’s a new science of being uncertain. Can you give us the lay of the land?
Maggie Jackson: Uh, yes. And, and it is very exciting. That’s exactly what pulled me in and partly inspired this book as a matter of fact. Uh, basically to put it fairly simply. But accurately, uh, many different disciplines from psychology to many of the social sciences, to anthropology, to education, to business, have either not studied uncertainty full on, you know, psychological uncertainty in a sort of full on way, or a lot of disciplines have just treated uncertainty as something to, uh, you know, mathematize out of existence.
So the aim has been for hundreds of years in our kind of efficiency oriented rationalist world too. Get rid of uncertainty foremost. And it’s only in the last decade and a half, not only in neuroscience where the tools weren’t there before, but in many other disciplines where now people are interested in uncertainty in and of itself.
What is it? How does our brain work on uncertainty? What are its different forms? Uh, when and how can we be unsure? Uh, so this is distinct from, you know, the probabilistic modeling and mathematics that allow us to get a toehold on of likelihood on the volatility. AKA’s uncertainty out there, I’m talking about our own human uncertainty that’s really being unpacked for the, for sometimes for the first time.
It’s really exciting.
Tami Simon: So I’ve been sitting with my own feeling of being uncertain. And you know, you talk about how one way to think about this is the gap between. Question and answer. So I’ve been sitting in my questions about being uncertain and seeking answers, and one of the things I’ve noticed through this introspection is that there are these different flavors of when I’m uncertain and I wanna start there.
Flavor is not a word you use, but in my own experience, there are these different emotional associations, and just in the biggest and broadest way, sometimes I’m uncertain and I’m upset, scared and terrified. That’s how I feel, and it’s especially with certain things in my life that I feel uncertain about.
Like for me, it has to do with money or other things. Oh my God, I’m uncertain and I’m terrified. Then there are other things like this. Uncertainty about our conversation together, or when I’m exploring a new idea or when I’m engaging in all other kinds of problem solving and introspection where I like, I’m into it, I’m excited, I feel good about it.
It’s, you know, what you refer to as the wonder, the curiosity. So first of all, can you just help me understand these two very different types of being uncertain?
Maggie Jackson: Yes, that’s a really important point, uh, because essentially it’s really important to understand that uncertainty isn’t monolithic. Uh, it is a, a great starting point for beginning to understand uncertainty, is that, to understand that it comes in different forms and it’s, uh, kind of a space of possibilities that takes on different characteristics depending on what’s happening in our world.
So for instance, if I’m diagnosed with. Terminal cancer, the uncertainty of how long I live will be woven with threat. Uh, that’s a, you know, a certain uncertainty on a. Life or death scale basically. Um, there’s also the degree of uncertainty. If I’m diagnosed with a rare cancer and no one knows anything about it, there’s another aspect of uncertainty.
Uh, and then of course there can be just been all kinds of uncertainty of what ice cream should they choose when I go get a scoop over July 4th, uh, or wait, you know, what kind of car should I buy? So we can see that there’s different degrees and levels, uh, different relationships to threat. Um, some of it’s curiosity driven, uh, infused with just wanting to know when I’m doing a research paper rather than, um, starting out a research topic and saying, I’m gonna prove this, or, I already know this, but I’m gonna see what the research says about it.
You see what I mean? Curiosity driven exploration. And so those are really important and I talk about second. Secondly, I think that. I talk a lot about the modes of uncertainty and action. So one of the main points of my book is that we can carry or harness uncertainty into different states of being or, or actually cognition.
So daydreaming is a form of uncertainty. It’s asking what if questions. It’s very future oriented. Studies show that’s being an in uncertainty in action or trying to drop the assumptions and stereotypes that we have about someone whose politics we loath. That’s a kind of uncertainty and action related to opening up our perspective.
So I write about eight different types of modes of uncertainty and action, and in all of these very important. Arenas of life, arenas of thought, arenas of, of just living. Uh, we can see different ways in which uncertainty can be harnessed and wielded as a cognitive tool. Uh, different ways in which it speaks to aspects of our humanity.
You know, everything from curiosity to open-mindedness, and then resilience and mental wellbeing. Um, so it’s a, it seems like we bandy about this word as if it’s all the same thing. And yet you get, once you open the gates of your mind to exploring uncertainty, you begin to realize that although we know it’s, you know, part of life and woven into life, I think, uh, we in our contemporary society spend a lot of time, um, retreating from that or turning our back on the complexity, uh, of uncertainty.
Tami Simon: And I wanna talk more Maggie and spend most of our time. Exploring how we harness uncertainty and action for its positive benefits. I think that is the gift that your work brings. But before we get there, I just wanna make sure we’re addressing that person who’s still like, look, I just hate it because I get so afraid.
And when I’m afraid I’m not harnessing, I’m shut down. I’m in some kind of survival state and this is not, uh, a, a state where my best can be harnessed. Can you just talk to that person? How can they somehow separate the fear they’re feeling from an appreciation of the positives of uncertainty?
Maggie Jackson: Sure. A great starting point is to know that, uh, it’s a mistake to conflate fear and anxiety with the discomfort of uncertainty, literally at the very physiological level.
Uh, we often get uneasy, uh, when we’re unsure. So if a storm is coming and you’re not sure whether to evacuate or turn off the TV or just go to bed, et cetera, you could see you’re faced with multiple options. You’re working at the edge of what you know, but that. Is actually a state. The unease of that state is actually, scientists now say good stress.
It’s called arousal. Uh, so uncertainty as one neuroscientist told me is literally the brain telling itself. Quote, there’s something to be learned here. Now our heart might raise, we might sweat a little, we might be uncomfortable at the edge of what we know. But that’s different than fear. Fear is basically a fear, um, of the unknown.
Anxiety is a fear of the unknown, I’m sorry, and fear. When you fear something, when you give yourself over to fear, uh, you are also in instigating a kind of stress response. But the stress response is distinct from the arousal of uncertainty. So when we are fearful, the higher order centers or networks of the brain actually begin to shut down the blood.
Your body and brain begin to flow away from the extremities, including the brain, and toward the core, you go into, into survival mode. And that’s exactly how what you were explaining. So for us to understand, when people begin to understand the difference, the distinction between fear and uncertainty, they tell me it’s liberating.
Suddenly the world opens up and you can begin to see that curiosity and that wonder and those pathways toward that, rather than the shutting down that we all know, uh, is related to fear.
Tami Simon: Okay. I wanna understand more though about how it can be liberating because in my experience what happens is that it’s like the fear hijacks.
The alert state, like there’s this alert state, oh, there’s something I have to pay attention to. And then really quickly, the fear state can come in and just be, oh, took over. And even though I’m now familiar that these are different states, I have to untangle this somehow. And so I’m curious what you know about that, and is there any scientific research that can help me when I’m watching the hijacking happen?
Maggie Jackson: Mm-hmm. Uh, well, I, I like to talk about leading into uncertainty and averting the path of fear. And there are many ways we can do this just simply through our expectations. So for instance, if you expect change. In a room or in the Monday morning meeting or in your, if you just always are open to the idea that you might not know or the things might change, which is often hard to do in day-to-day life, uh, you’ll be more likely to pick up on the nuances and the shifts in the environment that’s taking the path of uncertainty.
Uh, if you are, for instance, one way, one concrete, granular way to avert fear is to not focus so much on outcome. So if you’re giving a speech and you’re. Beginning to feel cowed by the circumstances, or you think people are not liking what you’re saying and your mind begins to spin. I’m not doing well.
I’m not gonna get my bonus. I’m, I’m really gonna, you know, hide in the ladies’ room after this. See, what your mind is doing is it’s, you’re actually walking away from that epic chance. That uncertainty has to be in the moment to be wakeful and you’re, you’re basically focusing on the outcome instead of the process that gets you a good outcome.
So dialing back on outcome fixation is one way to be open to, uh, fear. And studies show that knowing that that kind of stress is good stress and it’s equipping you to perform, uh, actually helps people perform well. Um, studies show that focusing on. Uh, the outcome or the reward, or even the punishment potentially that you’re thinking is at the end of a challenging moment, uh, actually leads to performance anxiety.
Uh, so I call uncertainty a kind of wakefulness, a kind of honesty. Uh, it, I think it links strongly to mindfulness. Um, because you are open, you’re in that space of possibilities that is uncertainty. And so I think it has a lot to do with educating ourselves about what anxiety is, knowing that these are not synonymous, um, trying it out.
Uh, so one of the ways that. Scientists help people become less anxious. An actual successful treatment for, you know, people with intractable diagnosed anxiety is to just laser focus, work on bolstering their tolerance of uncertainty. I mean, this is really, really, really exciting. A new kind of cutting edge frontier of anxiety treatments.
So what people do in order to bolster your tolerance of uncertainty, which is basically your openness to uncertainty, your ability to see it as a challenge instead of a threat. Uh, this is a personality trait. We all sit somewhere on the spectrum, but in order to. Bolster your tolerance of uncertainty and become more resilient and become less anxious.
Um, people are tasked or coached to just do simple daily exercises to try out the unknown. So they might literally be told by a psychologist or a therapist to try a new dish at a restaurant, which when I first read that, I thought, oh, come on. You know, I mean, that seems so simple, so easy, kind of. I was really skeptical.
And then I began to think, well, how often do I order the same dish when I’m tired on a Friday night and I fall into these, you know, routines and ruts and just testing yourself, working at the edge. Um, delegate more at work. Let your kids pack their suitcase, uh, seed some control. And then what you’re doing is you are not just.
Discovering that uncertainty isn’t always the disaster you fear, but then you’re gaining practice in being uncertain skillfully in that, in these different modes of action. So this is, so this is something that sets the stage to do, to do that harnessing that wielding and different types of, uh, situations like, uh, you know, crisis decision making or creative daydreaming or, you know, combating polarization.
What I’m talking about is, uh, openness tolerance is, it’s more than acceptance. It’s basically practicing incrementally your ability to, uh, deal with the unknown, gaining skill and practice. And one, um, just for another granular example, work, uh, researchers in Ohio State have been working with young adults, and one of their assignments in order to bolster tolerance or uncertainty is to ask the young people to just answer their phone without caller id.
That’s all. And actually that’s terrifying for many younger people because they’re not screening, they’re not, you know, they’re not in control of who’s at the other end of the line. Uh, and so these little practices are beautifully helpful in opening up, allowing us to set the stage to thin. Move into the skill related to uncertainty.
I hope that’s clear.
Tami Simon: It is. And I would like you to say more though, of how you link it to mindfulness specifically, because you mentioned being uncertain as a type of wakefulness or alertness. And I notice, I find that to be a really good doorway for me. And I’d love to just hear more explicitly in your view, how it’s linked to mindfulness and mindful practice.
Maggie Jackson: Yes, and I am not an expert whatsoever on mindfulness. I’ve, I’ve written a book that has a lot to do with attention. So I, I’ve read a lot over the years, but I certainly, uh, your listeners are probably far more expert than I am. Uh, but at the same time, uh, mindfulness, uh, uncertainty when we are open to uncertainty, not just expect, not just accepting, not just comfortable with uncertainty.
Uh, as I was mentioning, you’re moving into an arousal mode in which you can. Basically be more alert to your environment because if you are past the fear or averting the fear, and you are, um, you know, in this arousal mode of uncertainty, uh, there are important changes that go on in your body and brain.
For instance, scientists are now discovering that when you’re uncertain certain, as uneasy as it is, your working memory goes up, improves, uh, your attention sharpens and focus, uh, your focus sharpens and your brain becomes more, uh, receptive to new data. So you can see that that translates into a kind of wakefulness about the world around you.
I, I think it’s actually akin to feeling. Very alive. And, uh, Stu there are studies out of the University of Washington that found that in emergency room doctors who were reporting in the moment that they were unsure about a sticky, difficult clinical situation also reported heightened detention, which helped them perform.
Um, so those are some of the concrete ways in which this arousal actually sets us up to be more aware, awake, alive. Uh, and I have a personal example. I, during COVID started open water swimming almost every day. Four seasons in New England. So winter’s pretty cold, uh, and the pools were closed. And I picked up this.
Activity and found it literally the most alive thing I’d ever done. Uh, and it’s just swimming by the shore. It’s not as if it’s a, you know, crossing the English channel by any means. But this aliveness, this heightened perception where was one of the most exhilarating and almost kind of addictive aspects of it.
And I felt, and I do feel, and studies show too, that this spills over. This is my daily dose of uncertainty. This is how I bolstered. And I didn’t really put this together until I was, I mean, I was already, I was working on a book outta uncertainty, but I didn’t really realize that what I was doing was all about bolstering my tolerance of uncertainty until another swimmer pointed it out.
He said one day, as we were circling this rock away from shore, it’s a little bit challenging. He said, this is it. This is it. It the unknown. That’s where we wanna be. Or something like that. And click. I thought, yeah, that’s exactly it. That’s the. Wakefulness of uncertainty.
Tami Simon: Now, just to make sure I’m following you, it’s not the cold immersion that’s necessarily uncertain, but it’s being out in the water and not knowing what you’re going to encounter.
Is that the part that you’re underscoring with being uncertain?
Maggie Jackson: Exactly. I mean, there are many variables to why. Open water year-round. Swimming is great. It’s can, you know it’s sociable and it’s cold and et cetera, et cetera. Uh, but, uh, there are, you know, studies showing that it’s partly the uncertainty.
It’s partly that you don’t know, because you can have an app and you look at the app at your house and it tells you the wave height and it tells you the, you know, mathematical modeling about, you know, what the ocean’s doing. But you get down there and you get in there and 20 min, 30 minutes later. Uh, all the conditions are changed.
So you’re, you’re working at the edge. And one another way to put this is that scientists now think of the, one of the foundational aspects of our cognitive lives is something called predictive processing. Uh, and in fact, the Buddhist philosopher, seventh century philosopher, um, from India, Dharma ti wrote about this in so many ways in prescient ways a long time ago.
But in any case, we live our lives predicting, expecting, assuming, because that’s how we can seamlessly operate. You know, I get up in the morning and I know that the bathroom hasn’t changed places. I know how to make a cup of tea. Um, you know, I know that my husband will look pretty much the same as he does, et cetera, et cetera.
So we can live our lives by expecting and assuming, but when reality. You know, and you started the show, think, talking about this, when reality, uh, tells us something different from what we expect, I see a tiger in my front yard when I wake up. Then the gap opens up between expectation and, you know, experience.
That’s called a prediction error in the brain. Uh, our brain waves really pick up on this. The gap, the uncertainty, that’s uncertainty. And the prediction error is part of what instigates all those stress responses. Uh, and so it the to be, I it’s, it’s basically a reality check, your prediction error. Uh, and the other thing that’s really lovely just to throw this in is that, um, we are as creatures, as a species extraordinarily sensitive to uncertainty.
The brainwaves, um, that pick up on. Uh, ambiguity on surprise, on anomaly in grammar. Um, one scientist studies this through telling people through headphones, uh, the, the phrase very happy war and a very unhappy. Hmm. The prediction is pretty much that you’re gonna say child or party, et cetera, but war Well, the prediction error has sparked something in your brain akin to uncertainty.
It jolts you out of your assumptions. And so it’s important to realize that we inhabit, uh, the world of our past knowledge. Most of our first reaction in routine situations where first thought that comes to mind is based on what we already know. Uh, and the, the, that’s what gut instinct is. It’s basically a kind of a template of what, you know, um, laid onto.
The world that you can predictably expect. But that’s why I keep talking about being at the edge, because when you are facing a prediction area, experiencing that unease of uncertainty, you’re working at the edge, what you know, that’s where the opportunity, uh, occurs. That’s where you can then begin to move forward into the unknown with curiosity and wonder, uh, and openness.
Tami Simon: I wanna ask you more about this personality trait, tolerance for uncertainty, because I imagine some people thinking, well, you know, I had a much greater tolerance for uncertainty until this traumatic event happened in my life. And then I became a lot more sensitized and intolerant or someone else saying, well, you know, if you were born in my family with the background I had, you would be intolerant too based on this or that.
And you seem to say very clearly that this is a malleable trait that we can impact it. And I think some people may feel like, really, I’m not so sure it’s as malleable as Maggie’s saying.
Maggie Jackson: Uh, well, I first of all can understand that. Uh, all of the different types of uncertainty that we’ve been talking about.
Uh, also linked to our past experiences and how we feel about, uh, uncertainty of threat, uh, unpredictable, precarious upbringings, et cetera. So, I don’t, I’m not saying that everyone, you know, through, um, their past experiences, you know, starts on the tolerant of uncertainty side or not. Um, I don’t know about the links between, I have not seen any research on tolerance of uncertainty and trauma, for instance.
Um, but at the same time, uh, I think. It’s really important. The important point is that this is malleable and it’s also situational. So while I may never be a person who wants to be a bungee jumper, that’s uncertainty that I would find excessive to my comfort zone, my tolerance of uncertainty. But on the other hand, I want to constantly be tolerant of uncertainty in writing, in intellect, in, um, relating to others, uh, et cetera.
So there are different. Ways in which we, this, this, this, uh, this trait is situational. Um, and, and when everyone is tired or overloaded, they become, they lean more toward seeking one answer, any answer they lock down. It’s called need for closure and psychological circles. Um, so that’s something to be aware of.
Uh, and uh, but then it’s also mutable because we can, as I was mentioning, train this tolerance of uncertainty so we can get better at it. And one of, one important point also to note is that, uh, people who are, well, let’s take COVID for an example. Studies showed that people who were tolerant of uncertainty during COVID tended to accept the realities of the situation.
Now I think there’s a little dot, dot, dot connection to wakefulness, uh, people who are, who are. By nature tend to be intolerant of uncertainty. Again, maybe it’s about health, maybe it’s about, you know, daily life, et cetera. They tended to cope with COVID, the acute phase of COVID with denial, avoidance and abusing substances.
So it sets us up for black and white thinking, uh, for, uh, people who are in that end of the spectrum, dislike surprises, and they’re more vulnerable to, uh, different mental challenges and disorders like anxiety. So then we can see if we’re looking at that other end of the spectrum, why being more tolerant is related to resilience.
Um, so that’s another way in which people with chronic health conditions like multiple sclerosis are also being trained in bolstering tolerance of uncertainty, um, so that then they can be more resilient when they’re facing a very, very. Um, you know, mysterious and unpredictable illness. Um, it’s really quite powerful and it’s a, this is, it’s interesting, this is a personality dimension, just like shyness or agreeableness, et cetera, that was only discovered about 50 years ago in the post-war search for the authoritarian personality.
So scientists actually in Berkeley, including Adorno, one of the greats, um, but a young psychologist named Elsa Frankl Brunswick was looking for, you know, who is it that followed authoritarian leaders. And she discovered this personality dimension relates to all that I’ve been talking about. Uh, and it’s only in the last few years that it’s been really picked up on, um, maybe as uncertainty becomes a by word for our culture today.
Um, the IMF calls this the decade of uncertainty or maybe as. Anxiety is so, uh, prevalent, um, in, for so many people are struggling with this kind of, um, you know, mental challenge. I don’t know. But it’s getting a lot of research, uh, and it’s really, really very interesting. Um, there, there even now, uh, efforts in medical schools to train for tolerance of uncertainty, uh, in order to help young doctors become more flexible, better diagnosticians, and also less prone to burnout.
There are a lot of studies that show that healthcare practitioners, not just doctors, um, are more, if they are rate high on scales of intolerance, of uncertainty, if they see uncertainty as a threat, they order more tests, they’re less likely to want to treat underserved patients whose cases are often more complex, uh, and they, um, suffer more burnout.
So I would speculate, although I don’t know all the details that. It’s just difficult. It’s tiring, it’s fatiguing to constantly want the right answer and to be blindsided when life throws you its own dynamic, you know, multiplicative, uh, you know, different curve balls. Uh, and when we’re constantly seeking certainty, I think we’re constantly disappointed and perhaps grow more fearful.
We, we remain, I think about it metaphorically as remaining on the island of your knowledge and not exploring the sea of. Unknown there. Maybe I use a lot of ocean meth metaphors for obvious reasons. Okay.
Tami Simon: I wanna ask you two personal questions, Maggie. Here’s the first one. Do you feel annoyed that interviewers like me keep talking about the fear and survival and all the ways that uncomfortable and hate uncertainty and don’t wanna celebrate it?
Like really we have to talk about that. My book is about the wisdom and wonder, can’t we get to that part of it already? Does it annoy you? Just I’m curious.
Maggie Jackson: No, no. It really doesn’t because I, I started from a place and I, I still, we all will always struggle with the unease of uncertainty and it’s very close.
You know, kind of cousin like nature to fear. Uh, you know, uncertainty is about being on the edge of losing control. It’s not on the edge of an abyss, but it is on the edge of the unknown. It’s about looking at the frontier of not knowing. And so everything about it is not comfortable. It’s not a picnic. Uh, and so I think when I just also to, uh, illustrate how close your questions are to the general public’s points of curiosity, almost everywhere I go now to give live speeches.
I start with a little poll and I ask the room, you know, please think of the one word that comes to mind when I say uncertainty. And then I take about three or four hands, just a short poll and one word, and. Almost invariably, I haven’t done a scientific count so far, but the first hand goes up and says anxiety, and then fear is in that mix.
And three quarters of the uh, words used in every audience are negative. And I’d also have to say that it’s important to understand that we have this natural dislike of uncertainty because we evolve to need and want answers. So none of what I’m saying is about remaining in limbo. But I think we need to wake up to the idea that our cultural messages and the.
Very look and feel and, and, uh, kind of process of using technology is pushing us to think that instant, neat pat crisp, certain answers are the ideal. And again, this goes back hundreds of years to, you know, many, many, many, many, a lot of culture’s emphasis on speed and efficiency and, and the, you know, rationalist ideas and enlightenment ideas of what intelligence is to, you know, achieve a goal however you can in a linear way.
All of that adds up to a heck of a lot of, uh, pushback really on not only our essential innate curiosity about the world, but also our sensitivity to uncertainty. I think we almost have to get back to understanding that we are supremely gifted at uncertainty. Being unsure as a species, as humans. And if we could tap into that and practice and gain skill, um, which I’d like to talk about too, a little bit more about the skill involved, uh, I think then we can face the future in ways that allow us to really tackle some of these complex problems ahead of us instead of fearing them or retreating from them.
Tami Simon: Okay. And then another personal question for you. After doing all of this study writing and now speaking about being uncertain, how has it changed you from waking up to going to bed at night during your day? How are you different?
Maggie Jackson: I really am truly different. This is my third book. The first was on the nature of home and the digital age.
The second was distracted and it was about attention, which is a hugely important topic, and I absolutely loved both of those books. This is the end of a trilogy. This one changed me far more, I guess. Basically, I do operate with less fear and less expectation and less certainty. I mean, it sounds as though this is not rocket science that we all should be operating without expectations of.
Who a person is or what we’re going to find when we enter the room or what tomorrow will bring. I mean, we should be operating not with complete ignorance. Uncertainty is not ignorance, but with opening the door to the fact that we, at any given moment might be wrong or at any minute, given given moment, we might not know.
And so just to be a little bit more convinced, reminded, steeped in that has really changed me and helped me. It helped me when I’m dealing with a. You know, a daughter who is, you know now two 20 something daughters who are coping with life today and all its difficulties. And I am much better. I think about not offering fixes or suggestions, fixes, masquerading as suggestions, but just being in that moment with them, acknowledging the uncertainty and the unease of it all, uh, I feel as though to be in the suspense of uncertainty together is one of the greatest gifts we can give each other.
And when I was really sick a few years ago, I desperately wanted that from people. I didn’t want them to tell me which doctor, which treatment, which something to do. I wanted them to, as wonderful as their suggestions might be, to just be with me. And let something evolve. Um, I also find that professionally in my writing.
I know it’s, I sure sure know. It’s a very frustrating profession in many ways, as joyful and rewarding as it is too. But the process of asking a question to write an article, to write a book or a chapter, I now feel as frustrated often, but somehow in a macro, meta way, I can look down at myself and, and think that it’s okay.
You’re frustrated because that shows you’re really getting into the weeds, the good, the delicious weeds of complex questions. And one of the traits, there’s a. Kind of a parallel trait in curiosity research, uh, the curious personality. It’s highly related to the tolerance of uncertainty, but the people who are most actively curious in life, people who actually explore and do something about their curiosity, points of curiosity, if you know what I mean.
They ask difficult questions, they go out and find out those are the people who score very high on tolerance. This on, on withstanding the stress of the unknown. So to be curious, you have to have a, it’s a little stressful. It’s a little uneasy. Um, but you’re working with that. And I love that, that it’s not, it’s not a picnic.
Again, it reiterates, it’s not a picnic.
Tami Simon: We’re gonna talk about the skill of uncertainty and uncertainty in action. I wanna for a moment, bring this skill to something that maybe you haven’t written or spoken about often, which is uncertainty in the process of spiritual inquiry. ’cause I think it’s so important.
So in spiritual inquiry, you might ask a question like, who am I? The classic spiritual inquiry question. And of course if you, if you think there’s an answer, you’re not really engaged in the inquiry. And as I was thinking about spiritual inquiry, I thought, God, it’s actually probably a lot like scientific inquiry and I wonder what Maggie has to say about that.
Maggie Jackson: Well, I would say, uh, absolutely because the minute we think something is certain or could be certain, we’re shutting the door. On future possibility. So I guess if, and I’m, you know, speaking from just gut instinct, if spiritual inquiry is a lifelong never finished process, uh, then, and that really tunes into what uncertainty is, which I call, I call uncertainty, wisdom, and motion.
It, it reflects and is kind of elevated by not just admitting, but also working with the dynamism of life. Yeah. Another reason I call it wakefulness, uh, scientific inquiry is, um, you know very much about seeking questions. It’s about welcoming and reveling in failure errors, dead ends, detours. Uh, much of that is again.
Disparaged in our contemporary lives. Not all just in work, but in education, in schools, et, et et cetera. Uh, and so when we can welcome those, I think that’s a really important aspect of, uh, understanding how uncertainty can fit into our lives. And I was just on the Nobel Prize website, which is really a wonderful, wonderful website.
They have all sorts of lectures and interviews and, and they have a section just on failure. And so, um, some Nobel Prize scientists who discovers stem cells and works with, um, X, Y, Z and another chemical, you know, Nobel Prize winner, we’re all talking about failure, teaching them failure, telling them something.
But I think that same. We can same say the same of uncertainty. What is uncertainty telling us is a great question. And maybe that’s, you know, akin to a spiritual inquiry too, where there’s so much we don’t know. We don’t know about the mysteries of the universe. We don’t know what forces are beyond our human perception, at least at this moment.
Uh, we don’t know where it’ll all end or where it all began. Um, we can only keep asking those questions and incrementally calibrating our knowledge to, um, you know, the next little point of epiphany or understanding and whatnot. Uh, and, and I’ll also add that this tolerance of uncertainty has many different aspects.
It’s also is related to how we. Think about knowledge. So epistemic, epistemic uncertainty. So people who are tolerant of uncertainty. Uh, actually my metaphor, see knowledge as a tapestry whose very mutability is its strength. If you could picture weaving, you know, one thread in more threads, you know, weaving and constantly, but the, but it’s, it’s a mo movable force, but it’s also, uh, highly strong.
Whereas people who are intolerance of uncertainty, um, see uncertainty as a rock, I’m sorry, they see knowledge as a rock that they are want to hold and defend. Um, and all of that, I think speaks volumes about spiritual inquiry.
Tami Simon: One of my favorite spiritual teachers talks about reality at itself as being indeterminate.
And I notice, uh, when this person says that there’s a part of me that. Feels quite excited about that. Like no wonder it can’t be, you know, written down, defined, nailed, named in some way. It itself is indeterminate. So anyway, I think that brings up what’s unknowable and, uh, the wonder of what’s unknowable instead of the frustration with what’s unknowable.
Maggie Jackson: Mm-hmm. Uh, I think that’s really important, and knowing what you don’t know is central to learning. You can’t progress. Um, and in my work on social, the social side of uncertainty, um, we can see that the good collaboration is. Fueled by uncertainty. Uh, and just bear with me for a bit because it’s a bit complex, but it’s really important.
Um, you know, group think agreement is sort of a cursory way for a group to operate. It leads to less accuracy, less creativity, uh, et cetera, to people being less, less willing to challenge one another. So of course, we need to disagree with one another. But what’s little known and what science is now proving is that disagreement, uh, is the, the real fuel behind good disagreement, good collaboration is uncertainty.
Why is that? Because in studies. If someone offers a dissenting opinion, and it’s even just dead wrong, that still the group will gain in their performance metrics. Uh, even if you’re arguing and the, and people are, you know, giving wrong answers, the group has suddenly a skeptical, curious, you know, more challenging mindset, which leads to better, uh, innovation, et cetera, et cetera.
Why is that? Because really what’s important is uncertainty. Uh, so through, uh, being a airing differences. The group actually learns what it doesn’t know. And, and I was studying at length the NASA team that put the rovers on Mars. Um, many, many scientists have been embedded and done these incredibly intense studies of how they worked and why they were so successful.
Uh, and they basically, um, utilized disagreement to I, uh, to actually, um, fuel uncertainty. They wanted more uncertainty in the group because as one computer scientist told me who studied them. That’s when you realize what you don’t know. So this group, this, uh, you know, ability to disagree and to be unsure together, uh, is what really leads people to work together in, in, in fantastic ways.
And that’s sort of a long answer, but I think that, um, it’s really important to understand that we can be uncertain together.
Tami Simon: Yeah. I, I’m curious what you found works in groups and organizations. I’m sure at this point you’ve done a lot of teaching, lecturing and consulting in the workspace to actually.
Invite and encourage disagreement. I know in my own work, at one point I created the Courageous Feedback Award for people on our leadership team. When we would ask this question, what’s under the table? Please tell me what’s under the table. And I was like, please share courageous, because it’s so hard often to get people to disagree.
I was like, I want it. But people are shy often to give it.
Maggie Jackson: Yeah. And it seems as though in our very polarized, divisive, uh, times right now that, uh, it seems. A counterintuitive to think that, to, to understand how deeply humans try to race toward agreement, uh, because they all want to get past the discomfort of uncertainty and also the, the discomfort of disagreeing.
Um, one of the wonderful, uh, sort of practices that the Mars Rover team used was something called the listening ritual. And they instituted after a, a software problem, which almost jeopardized one of these robots worth hundreds of millions of dollars. They institute, uh, the listening ritual, which meant that after every meeting, even it was two people or 200 people, the manager in charge was responsible for ending the call or meeting, saying.
Does anybody not understand? Does anybody want to disagree? And then what was important was that those people who spoke up, whether it was an intern or a project scientist, they were actually treated as a positive asset to the team. So, and, and the second important point is that the group, especially the leaders, have to really understand that this is important and constantly work against the kind of bonding and agreement that allows, you know, our team to, um, you know, people on teams.
That are highly bonded or that who don’t disagree, who tend toward agreement, um, actually see one another as more similar than they really are. I mean, they literally become blind to the diversity among them. Not just diversity of knowledge. It’s really startlingly amazing, powerful how our brains want to be in accord.
Our brains wanna agree with each other. And so it’s hard work, uh, to move away from that. And the last thing I’ll say is that studies have shown that leaders who use words like maybe, or sometimes hedge words, uh, which have a very bad reputation, and business circles particularly, uh, actually are seen as more approachable.
Uh, and they’re more seen as more professional. So a leader that says maybe. We should let this rest for the night. Or maybe we’re not quite sure what the focus group is telling us. Isn’t seen as weak and a loser as we often expect, but rather the opposite and linguistically the word maybe. And these other terms, uh, actually not only signals approachability that you’re receptive to others’ point of views, but secondly, that there’s something more to know.
It’s like waving a little flag in the air in the group when you say maybe that, Hmm, we, we, we can’t stop there. Let’s continue to operate in this space of possibility, not forever, but it’s important here and now. So I, I love that. Maybe power. I call it maybe power.
Tami Simon: Maggie. I wanna make sure that I am extracting from our conversation the core drivers of developing this skill of being uncertain.
And so far, uh, I’ve. I heard you talk very clearly about growing my tolerance for what I’m not expecting, instead of getting stuck in my ruts, that’s my language. Uh, not being outcome oriented, but instead being in the process, uh, seeking disagreement, taking other perspectives, other points of view, and then hear the power of expressing the, maybe the, perhaps using hedge words.
What else will help me grow my skill of being uncertain?
Maggie Jackson: Yes. Um, and I, I think this, it is really important to know we can do this in many different ways, you know, whether it’s daydreaming or other types of collaborative efforts, et cetera. Um, because the point, the sort of preface point to understanding skill is to know that when we are open to that arousal, when we are open to the sort of the good stress of uncertainty, we’re setting ourselves up to then.
Exercise that skill in uncertainty depending on the situation. Uh, so a further, um, sit situation or time when uncertainty is absolutely valuable is, uh, when you are doing some kind of crisis decision making, uh, and when you want to be a exemplary expert. Um, so what in, in brief, many experts. Just rest on past knowledge.
They’re applying old solutions over time. We all know people in our field, or our team or our company who just keep, you know, fighting the last battle. That’s called routine expertise. Uh, those are the people who look really fluent and really sure, and they can, you know, diagnose across the room if they’re a doctor or they can walk into the room and know what to do if they’re the leader.
But it’s only in the last 15 years that. Scientists have begun to discover a higher echelon of expertise called adaptive. And this is where the skill comes in. Adaptive experts spend more time diagnosing a problem or a situation than even novices do. Uh, they explore multiple options about what’s going on in a difficult situation, not a routine situation, but a situation where something’s ambiguous or surprising, uh, when they need to work at the edge.
Uh, and then finally, they take time to test and evaluate. Now, all of this can occur in just a few minutes, but adaptive expertise is something really to strive for. Uh, and so a, a final strategy, uh, to take home is that. You can be an adaptive expert by taking time when you hear the signal of uncertainty or feel that unease of uncertainty taking time to in inhabit the question I call it.
Uh, and that really does distinguish mediocre from excellent performers, uh, and, and as well. Um, people who are adaptive experts always take on harder cases. The violinist might play the more difficult concerto, uh, the, uh, you know, professional, uh, accountant might or a lawyer might take on the, the more difficult, um, you know, clients, uh, et cetera.
So you’re constantly pushing the edge of your knowledge forward testing and practicing kind of, uh, akin to everything we’ve been talking about today.
Tami Simon: Two final questions for you, Maggie. This image keeps coming up for me and I don’t know if it’s, uh, and I’m using a lot of hedge words here. Perhaps it’s appropriate for our conversation, or perhaps it’s just part of my daydreaming, which is I’m thinking of an image that a teacher offered for what it’s like to be intensely present.
And he describes a cat that is looking at a mouse hole and is sitting for hours, for hours and hours. When will the mouse appear? And there’s this quality of intense alertness about a cat in that posture. And this is a, a way to tune us in to what it might be like to sit in presence. And I thought to myself, I wonder if the wakefulness of uncertainty.
If this image might have some instruction for me around that, or if I am mixing the hunting mind in, in a way that’s, uh, inappropriate here.
Maggie Jackson: Hmm. Well, I would say that it’s not enough to sit at the mouse hole. Uh, in other words, that alertness and that wakefulness is akin to recognizing the good stress and not running away from it.
That again, sets you up. It’s something that I, I also think metaphorically about a batter who’s just about to face the ball coming at them in baseball or whatnot, cricket, uh, and that’s the stance that they have, sets the stage for how they will. Carry forth the skills of batting and running and playing the game.
So the cat at the mouse hole, yes, is highly alert, highly present. I called my, um, chapter on arousal of uncertainty, fresh eyes. That’s what I think. It gives you the good stress of uncertainty, but that’s not enough. That cat, I think, carries forth the wakefulness, and yet it also more in catching the mouth.
Maybe it’s not a straight shot that day. Maybe this mouse does something different. Maybe this time they need to do X, Y, Z or try a new position at the mouse hole, et cetera. So I think it’s really important to realize that. Uncertainty is a space of possibilities, but it is not passive. Contrary to our assumptions.
And, and not you, not that you’re saying the cat is in all passive at all. Uh, they might be still. And we in detaching ourselves, Jerome Bruner, the psychologist called. Pausing detachment from commitment. Uh, and that’s true of being in the space of possibilities because you’re not acting immediately. Uh, but then there’s the incremental, uh, the moving forward, the testing, the thinking, what if questions?
The skeptical mindset, you need to get to the resolution as a group, et cetera. Do you see what I mean?
Tami Simon: I do. I do. So we’re, we’re sort of setting the posture, if you will, the fresh eyes, but then there’s more to come in terms of our investigation and curiosity.
Maggie Jackson: Yes. And another way to think of it is carry those fresh eyes throughout every step of the way.
Then you’re wakeful alive even in routine. Yes. That’s part of adaptive expertise.
Tami Simon: And then the last question I wanted to ask you, your work is about the psychological. Inner experience of being uncertain. And yet you said in the very beginning, uncertainty the big unknowns that are out there. And you mentioned how many people would reference this time we’re in the age of anxiety, the age of uncertainty, different ways people would describe, uh, using words like the poly crisis that we’re in.
And I am curious. How do you feel when you make sense of the world today that this skill of being uncertain is something we need more now than ever? Is that why? Oh, I didn’t even realize when I wrote this book how fitting it would be for our time. ’cause this is the skill, one of the skills we need today.
How do you see it given the world we’re in?
Maggie Jackson: Yeah, I see it, you know, very complex ways, but I would say absolutely, uh, it’s not our perception that the world is becoming more. Volatile, predictable, whether or not it’s, um, security in jobs or, um, you know, job hours, scheduling for many different people in, um, less resourced environments or positions.
Uh, whether or not it’s, um, what economic markets are doing or whether or not it’s the geopolitical, uh, scene we have ahead of us, there is just more unpredictability and volatility and, and what people would say uncertainty. Uh, we’re not just talking about it because we’re making that up. Um, at the same time, of course, I’m not saying that this is the, you know, an uncertain time in history more so than else.
I mean, there have been crimes of tremendous upheaval and change and volatility and in the past, uh, people had. Perhaps different ways of coping. Uh, perhaps shared cultural institutions or, um, you know, religious, I don’t know, even a attitudes and routines related to time and space and, and how the world worked.
Um, maybe, perhaps in a world where we are all, in many ways, we can look to sages, we can look to wise people, but we also are, I think, many times on our own. Uh, I think that the, the ability to be skillfully unsure is extremely important today,
Tami Simon: skillfully. Unsure. Maggie Jackson, uh, thank you so much.
Award-winning author of the book, uncertain the Wisdom and Wonder of Being Unsure. Thank you for increasing our skillfulness. Thank you.
Maggie Jackson: Thank you. Wonderful conversation and I’m glad to explore all of these wonderful questions with you.
Tami Simon: You are brilliant and open-hearted and I really appreciate you.
Thank you so much.
Maggie Jackson: Thank you, Tammy. Thank you. I appreciate you too.
